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Article: Numérique

Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe / Lynda Hamaoui-Laguel in Nature Climate Change, (2015)

Article (2015)

[article]
inNature Climate Change > (2015) . - 3 p.

Titre :	Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe
Type de document :	Numérique
Auteurs :	Lynda Hamaoui-Laguel ; Robert Vautard ; Li Liu ; Fabien Solmon ; Nicolas Viovy ; Dmitry Khvorosthyanov ; Franz Essl (1973-) ; Isabelle Chuine ; Augustin Colette ; Mikhail A. Semenov ; Alice Schaffhauser ; Jonathan Storkey ; Michel Thibaudon ; Michelle M. Epstein
Année de publication :	2015
Article en page(s) :	3 p.
Langues :	Anglais (eng)
Catégories :	[CBNPMP-Thématique] Accidents climatiques [CBNPMP-Thématique] Adaptation naturelle au climat, résistance [CBNPMP-Thématique] Bioclimatologie agricole, facteurs du milieu [CBNPMP-Thématique] Météorologie et climatologie [CBNPMP-Thématique] Paléoclimat, fluctuations climatiques [CBNPMP-Thématique] Relations climat-végétation
Résumé :	Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) is an invasive alien species in Europe producing pollen that causes severe allergic disease in susceptible individuals1. Ragweed plants could further invade European land with climate and land-use changes2,3. However, airborne pollen evolution depends not only on plant invasion, but also on pollen production, release and atmospheric dispersion changes. To predict the effect of climate and land-use changes on airborne pollen concentrations, we used two comprehensive modelling frameworks accounting for all these factors under high-end and moderate climate and land-use change scenarios. We estimate that by 2050 airborne ragweed pollen concentrations will be about 4 times higher than they are now, with a range of uncertainty from 2 to 12 largely depending on the seed dispersal rate assumptions. About a third of the airborne pollen increase is due to on-going seed dispersal, irrespective of climate change. The remaining two-thirds are related to climate and land-use changes that will extend ragweed habitat suitability in northern and eastern Europe and increase pollen production in established ragweed areas owing to increasing CO2. Therefore, climate change and ragweed seed dispersal in current and future suitable areas will increase airborne pollen concentrations, which may consequently heighten the incidence and prevalence of ragweed allergy.
Identifiant :	DOI : 10.1038/nclimate2652 / HAL : hal-01806139
Permalink :	https://biblio.cbnpmp.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=142929

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