| Titre : |
Invasive species distribution models : how violating the equilibrium assumption can create new insights |
| Type de document : |
Tiré à part de revue |
| Auteurs : |
Laure Gallien ; Rolland Douzet ; Steve Pratte ; Niklaus E. Zimmermann ; Wilfried Thuiller (1975-) |
| Année de publication : |
2012 |
| Importance : |
1126-1136 |
| Langues : |
Anglais (eng) |
| Catégories : |
[CBNPMP-Thématique] Plantes subspontanées, naturalisées, envahissantes
|
| Résumé : |
Aim : Two core assumptions of species distribution models (SDMs) do not holdwhen modelling invasive species. Invasives are not in equilibrium with their envi-ronment and niche quantification and transferability in space and time are limited.Here, we test whether combining global- and regional-scale data in a novel frame-work can overcome these limitations. Beyond simply improving regional nichemodelling of non-native species, the framework also makes use of the violation ofregional equilibrium assumptions, and aims at estimating the stage of invasion,range filling and risk of spread in the near future for 27 invasive species in theFrench Alps.
Innovation: For each invader we built three sets of SDMs using a committeeaveraging method: one global model and two regional models (a conventionalmodel and one using the global model output to weight pseudo-absences). Modelperformances were compared using the area under the receiver operating charac-teristic curve, the true skill statistic, sensitivity and specificity scores. Then, weextracted the predictions for observed presences and compared them to global andregional models. This comparison made it possible to identify whether invasivespecies were observed within or outside of their regional and global niches.
Main conclusions: This study provides a novel methodological framework forimproving the regional modelling of invasive species, where the use of a globalmodel output to weight pseudo-absences in a regional model significantlyimproved the predictive performance of regional SDMs. Additionally, the compari-son of the global and regional model outputs revealed distinct patterns of nicheestimates and range filling among the species. These differences allowed us to drawconclusions about the stage of invasion and the risk of spread in the near future,which both correspond to experts’ expectations. This framework can be easilyapplied to a large number of species and is therefore useful for control of biologicalinvasions and eradication planning. |
| Identifiant : |
DOI : 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2012.00768.x  |
| Permalink : |
https://biblio.cbnpmp.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=135330 |
Gallien, L., Douzet, R., Pratte, S., Zimmermann, N.E., Thuiller, W.,
2012
. Invasive species distribution models : how violating the equilibrium assumption can create new insights.
Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters, 21
: 1126-1136.
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