Auteur Wilfried Thuiller (1975-)
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Documents disponibles écrits par cet auteur (11)
Affiner la rechercheClimate change threats to plant diversity in Europe / Wilfried Thuiller in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102 (23) (2005)
Titre : Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe Type de document : Numérique Auteurs : Wilfried Thuiller (1975-) ; Sandra Lavorel (1965-) ; Miguel B. Araújo ; Martin T. Sykes ; I. Colin Prentice Année de publication : 2005 Article en page(s) : 8245-8250 Langues : Anglais (eng) Catégories : [CBNPMP-Géographique] Europe
[CBNPMP-Thématique] Relations climat-végétationRésumé : Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios. Application of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria to our projections shows that many European plant species
could become severely threatened. More than half of the species we studied could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. Expected species loss and turnover per pixel proved to be highly variable across scenarios (27– 42% and 45– 63% respectively, averaged over Europe) and across regions (2.5– 86% and 17– 86%, averaged over scenarios). Modeled species loss and turnover were found to depend strongly on the degree of change in just two climate variables describing temperature and moisture conditions. Despite the coarse scale of the analysis, species from mountains could be seen to be disproportionably sensitive to climate change (about 60% species loss). The boreal region was projected to lose few species, although gaining many others from immigration. The greatest changes are expected in the transition between the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions. We found that risks of extinction for European plants may be large, even in moderate scenarios of climate change and despite inter-model variability.Identifiant : DOI : 10.1073/pnas.0409902102 Permalink : https://biblio.cbnpmp.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=143442
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America > 102 (23) (2005) . - 8245-8250Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Araújo, M.B., Sykes, M.T., Prentice, I.C., 2005 . Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102(23): 8245-8250.Documents numériques
Article (2005)URL
Titre : European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change Type de document : Numérique Auteurs : Emily Haeuser ; Wayne Dawson ; Wilfried Thuiller (1975-) ; Stefan Dullinger ; Svenja Block ; Oliver Bossdorf ; Marta Carboni ; Luisa Conti ; Iwona Dullinger ; Franz Essl (1973-) ; Günther Klonner ; Dietmar Moser ; Tamara Münkemüller ; Madalin Parepa ; Lauren Talluto ; Holger Kreft ; Jan Pergl (1977-) ; Petr Pyšek ; Patrick Weigelt ; Marten Winter ; Martin Hermy ; Sebastiaan Van der Veken ; Cristina Roquet ; Mark van Kleunen (1973-) Année de publication : 2018 Langues : Anglais (eng) Catégories : [CBNPMP-Thématique] Plantes subspontanées, naturalisées, envahissantes
[CBNPMP-Thématique] Changement climatiqueRésumé : 1 Most naturalised and invasive alien plant species were originally introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, which have not yet naturalised. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it may lower the barriers to naturalisation for some ornamental alien species. Identifying those species is extremely important for anticipating impending invasions.
2 To identify predictors of naturalisation, we modelled the effects of climate, nursery availability and species characteristics on the current European naturalisation success of 2,073 ornamental aliens commonly planted in European gardens. We then used the resulting model together with climate projections for 2050 to forecast future naturalisation risks for the 1,583 species not yet naturalised in Europe.
3 We found that non-European naturalised range size, climatic suitability, propagule pressure, having a dioecious sexual system and plant height jointly explained current naturalisation success in Europe. By 2050, naturalisation probability projections increased by more than 0.1 for 41 species, and only decreased by more than 0.1 for one species.
4 Policy implications. Using predictions based on our integrated model of alien ornamental naturalisation success, we identified species with high future naturalisation risk and species with high projected increases in naturalisation potential in Europe under climate change. This species list allows for prioritisation of monitoring and regulation of ornamental plants to mitigate the invasion debt.Identifiant : DOI : 10.1111/1365-2664.13197 / HAL : hal-01983405
Permalink : https://biblio.cbnpmp.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=155482
in Journal of applied ecology > 55 (2018)Haeuser, E., Dawson, W., Thuiller, W., Dullinger, S., Block, S., Bossdorf, O., Carboni, M., Conti, L., Dullinger, I., Essl, F., Klonner, G., Moser, D., Münkemüller, T., Parepa, M., Talluto, L., Kreft, H., Pergl, J., Pyšek, P., Weigelt, P., Winter, M., Hermy, M., Van der Veken, S., Roquet, C., Kleunen, M.v., 2018 . European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change. Journal of applied ecology, 55.Documents numériques
article (2018)URL
Titre : Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion Type de document : Imprimé Auteurs : Olivier Broennimann ; U.A. Treier ; Heinz Müller-Schärer (1954-) ; Wilfried Thuiller (1975-) ; A. T. Peterson ; Antoine Guisan (1966-) Année de publication : 2007 Article en page(s) : 701-709 Langues : Anglais (eng) Catégories : [CBNPMP-Thématique] Plantes subspontanées, naturalisées, envahissantes Mots-clés : Centaurea maculosa Lam. Identifiant : DOI : 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01060.x Permalink : https://biblio.cbnpmp.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=142443
in Ecology Letters > 10 (7) (2007) . - 701-709Broennimann, O., Treier, U.A., Müller-Schärer, H., Thuiller, W., Peterson, A.T., Guisan, A., 2007 . Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion. Ecology Letters, 10(7): 701-709.Exemplaires(1)
Code-barres Cote Support Localisation Section Disponibilité R12668 P-782 Revue Centre de documentation Revues Consultable Invasive species distribution models : how violating the equilibrium assumption can create new insights / Laure Gallien (2012)
Titre : Invasive species distribution models : how violating the equilibrium assumption can create new insights Type de document : Tiré à part de revue Auteurs : Laure Gallien ; Rolland Douzet ; Steve Pratte ; Niklaus E. Zimmermann ; Wilfried Thuiller (1975-) Année de publication : 2012 Importance : 1126-1136 Langues : Anglais (eng) Catégories : [CBNPMP-Thématique] Plantes subspontanées, naturalisées, envahissantes Résumé : Aim : Two core assumptions of species distribution models (SDMs) do not holdwhen modelling invasive species. Invasives are not in equilibrium with their envi-ronment and niche quantification and transferability in space and time are limited.Here, we test whether combining global- and regional-scale data in a novel frame-work can overcome these limitations. Beyond simply improving regional nichemodelling of non-native species, the framework also makes use of the violation ofregional equilibrium assumptions, and aims at estimating the stage of invasion,range filling and risk of spread in the near future for 27 invasive species in theFrench Alps.
Innovation: For each invader we built three sets of SDMs using a committeeaveraging method: one global model and two regional models (a conventionalmodel and one using the global model output to weight pseudo-absences). Modelperformances were compared using the area under the receiver operating charac-teristic curve, the true skill statistic, sensitivity and specificity scores. Then, weextracted the predictions for observed presences and compared them to global andregional models. This comparison made it possible to identify whether invasivespecies were observed within or outside of their regional and global niches.
Main conclusions: This study provides a novel methodological framework forimproving the regional modelling of invasive species, where the use of a globalmodel output to weight pseudo-absences in a regional model significantlyimproved the predictive performance of regional SDMs. Additionally, the compari-son of the global and regional model outputs revealed distinct patterns of nicheestimates and range filling among the species. These differences allowed us to drawconclusions about the stage of invasion and the risk of spread in the near future,which both correspond to experts’ expectations. This framework can be easilyapplied to a large number of species and is therefore useful for control of biologicalinvasions and eradication planning.Identifiant : DOI : 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2012.00768.x Permalink : https://biblio.cbnpmp.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=135330 Gallien, L., Douzet, R., Pratte, S., Zimmermann, N.E., Thuiller, W., 2012 . Invasive species distribution models : how violating the equilibrium assumption can create new insights. Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters, 21 : 1126-1136.Exemplaires(1)
Code-barres Cote Support Localisation Section Disponibilité 25414B PEE Tiré à part Bureaux Plantes exotiques envahissantes Consultable Documents numériques
article (2012)URL
Titre : Is there any evidence for rapid, genetically-based, climatic niche expansion in the invasive common ragweed ? Type de document : Numérique Auteurs : Laure Gallien ; Wilfried Thuiller (1975-) ; Noémie Fort ; Martí Boleda ; Florian J. Alberto ; Delphine Rioux ; Juliette Lainé ; Sébastien Lavergne (1976-) Année de publication : 2015 Article en page(s) : 17 p. Langues : Anglais (eng) Catégories : [CBNPMP-Thématique] Plantes subspontanées, naturalisées, envahissantes Résumé : Climatic niche shifts have been documented in a number of invasive species by comparing the native and adventive climatic ranges in which they occur. However, these shifts likely represent changes in the realized climatic niches of invasive species, and may not necessarily be driven by genetic changes in climatic affinities. Until now the role of rapid niche evolution in the spread of invasive species remains a challenging issue with conflicting results. Here, we document a likely genetically-based climatic niche expansion of an annual plant invader, the common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), a highly allergenic invasive species causing substantial public health issues. To do so, we looked for recent evolutionary change at the upward migration front of its adventive range in the French Alps. Based on species climatic niche models estimated at both global and regional scales we stratified our sampling design to adequately capture the species niche, and localized populations suspected of niche expansion. Using a combination of species niche modeling, landscape genetics models and common garden measurements, we then related the species genetic structure and its phenotypic architecture across the climatic niche. Our results strongly suggest that the common ragweed is rapidly adapting to local climatic conditions at its invasion front and that it currently expands its niche toward colder and formerly unsuitable climates in the French Alps (i.e. in sites where niche models would not predict its occurrence). Such results, showing that species climatic niches can evolve on very short time scales, have important implications for predictive models of biological invasions that do not account for evolutionary processes. Identifiant : DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0152867 Permalink : https://biblio.cbnpmp.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=142740
in PloS ONE > 11 (4) (2015) . - 17 p.Gallien, L., Thuiller, W., Fort, N., Boleda, M., Alberto, F.J., Rioux, D., Lainé, J., Lavergne, S., 2015 . Is there any evidence for rapid, genetically-based, climatic niche expansion in the invasive common ragweed ? PloS ONE, 11(4): 17 p..Documents numériques
Article (2015)URL
PermalinkORCHAMP Observatoire spatio-temporel de la biodiversité et du fonctionnement des socio-écosystèmes de montagne / Amélie Saillard (2021)
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