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European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change / Emily Haeuser in Journal of applied ecology, 55 (2018) 

Public Citation [article]  inJournal of applied ecology > 55 (2018) Titre : European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change Type de document : Numérique Auteurs : Emily Haeuser ; Wayne Dawson ; Wilfried Thuiller (1975-) ; Stefan Dullinger ; Svenja Block ; Oliver Bossdorf ; Marta Carboni ; Luisa Conti ; Iwona Dullinger ; Franz Essl (1973-) ; Günther Klonner ; Dietmar Moser ; Tamara Münkemüller ; Madalin Parepa ; Lauren Talluto ; Holger Kreft ; Jan Pergl (1977-) ; Petr Pyšek ; Patrick Weigelt ; Marten Winter ; Martin Hermy ; Sebastiaan Van der Veken ; Cristina Roquet ; Mark van Kleunen (1973-) Année de publication : 2018 Langues : Anglais (eng) Catégories : [CBNPMP-Thématique] Plantes subspontanées, naturalisées, envahissantes [CBNPMP-Thématique] Changement climatique Résumé : 1 Most naturalised and invasive alien plant species were originally introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, which have not yet naturalised. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it may lower the barriers to naturalisation for some ornamental alien species. Identifying those species is extremely important for anticipating impending invasions. 2 To identify predictors of naturalisation, we modelled the effects of climate, nursery availability and species characteristics on the current European naturalisation success of 2,073 ornamental aliens commonly planted in European gardens. We then used the resulting model together with climate projections for 2050 to forecast future naturalisation risks for the 1,583 species not yet naturalised in Europe. 3 We found that non-European naturalised range size, climatic suitability, propagule pressure, having a dioecious sexual system and plant height jointly explained current naturalisation success in Europe. By 2050, naturalisation probability projections increased by more than 0.1 for 41 species, and only decreased by more than 0.1 for one species. 4 Policy implications. Using predictions based on our integrated model of alien ornamental naturalisation success, we identified species with high future naturalisation risk and species with high projected increases in naturalisation potential in Europe under climate change. This species list allows for prioritisation of monitoring and regulation of ornamental plants to mitigate the invasion debt. Identifiant : DOI : 10.1111/1365-2664.13197 / HAL : hal-01983405 Permalink : https://biblio.cbnpmp.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=155482 Haeuser, Emily, Dawson, Wayne, Thuiller, Wilfried (1975-), Dullinger, Stefan, Block, Svenja, Bossdorf, Oliver, Carboni, Marta, Conti, Luisa, Dullinger, Iwona, Essl, Franz (1973-), Klonner, Günther, Moser, Dietmar, Münkemüller, Tamara, Parepa, Madalin, Talluto, Lauren, Kreft, Holger, Pergl, Jan (1977-), Pyšek, Petr, Weigelt, Patrick, Winter, Marten, Hermy, Martin, Van der Veken, Sebastiaan, Roquet, Cristina, Kleunen, Mark van (1973-) 2018 European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change. Journal of applied ecology, 55.

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