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Auteur Mikhail A. Semenov
Documents disponibles écrits par cet auteur (3)
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Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community / Frances C. Clare in Philosophical Transactions Royal Society London B, 371 (2016)
Titre : Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community Type de document : Imprimé Auteurs : Frances C. Clare ; Julia B. Halder ; Olivia Daniel ; Jon Bielby ; Mikhail A. Semenov ; Thibaut Jombart ; Adeline Loyau ; Dirk S. Schmeller ; Andrew A. Cunningham ; Marcus Rowcliffe ; Trenton W. J. Garner ; Jaime Bosch ; Matthew C. Fisher Année de publication : 2016 Article en page(s) : 20150454 Langues : Anglais (eng) Catégories : [Thématique] Enjeux de conservation des lacs d'altitude Résumé : Changes in the timings of seasonality as a result of anthropogenic climate change are predicted to occur over the coming decades. While this is expected to have widespread impacts on the dynamics of infectious disease through environmental forcing, empirical data are lacking. Here, we investigated whether seasonality, specifically the timing of spring ice-thaw, affected susceptibility to infection by the emerging pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) across a montane community of amphibians that are suffering declines and extirpations as a consequence of this infection. We found a robust temporal association between the timing of the spring thaw and Bd infection in two host species, where we show that an early onset of spring forced high prevalences of infection. A third highly susceptible species (the midwife toad, Alytes obstetricans) maintained a high prevalence of infection independent of time of spring thaw. Our data show that perennially overwintering midwife toad larvae may act as a year-round reservoir of infection with variation in time of spring thaw determining the extent to which infection spills over into sympatric species. We used future temperature projections based on global climate models to demonstrate that the timing of spring thaw in this region will advance markedly by the 2050s, indicating that climate change will further force the severity of infection. Our findings on the effect of annual variability on multi-host infection dynamics show that the community-level impact of fungal infectious disease on biodiversity will need to be re-evaluated in the face of climate change. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience’.
Lien pérenne : DOI : 10.1098/rstb.2015.0454
in Philosophical Transactions Royal Society London B > 371 (2016) . - 20150454Clare, FC., Halder, JB., Daniel, O., Bielby, J., Semenov, MA., Jombart, T., Loyau, A., Schmeller, DS., Cunningham, AA., Rowcliffe, M., Garner, TWJ., Bosch, J., Fisher, MC. 2016. Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community. Philosophical Transactions Royal Society London B, 371: 20150454.
Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe / Lynda Hamaoui-Laguel in Nature Climate Change, (2015)
Titre : Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe Type de document : Électronique Auteurs : Lynda Hamaoui-Laguel ; Robert Vautard ; Li Liu ; Fabien Solmon ; Nicolas Viovy ; Dmitry Khvorosthyanov ; Franz Essl (1973-) ; Isabelle Chuine ; Augustin Colette ; Mikhail A. Semenov ; Alice Schaffhauser ; Jonathan Storkey ; Michel Thibaudon ; Michelle M. Epstein Année de publication : 2015 Article en page(s) : 3 p. Langues : Anglais (eng) Catégories : [Thématique] Accidents climatiques
[Thématique] Adaptation naturelle au climat, résistance
[Thématique] Bioclimatologie agricole, facteurs du milieu
[Thématique] Météorologie et climatologie
[Thématique] Paléoclimat, fluctuations climatiques
[Thématique] Relations climat-végétation
Résumé : Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) is an invasive alien species in Europe producing pollen that causes severe allergic disease in susceptible individuals1. Ragweed plants could further invade European land with climate and land-use changes2,3. However, airborne pollen evolution depends not only on plant invasion, but also on pollen production, release and atmospheric dispersion changes. To predict the effect of climate and land-use changes on airborne pollen concentrations, we used two comprehensive modelling frameworks accounting for all these factors under high-end and moderate climate and land-use change scenarios. We estimate that by 2050 airborne ragweed pollen concentrations will be about 4 times higher than they are now, with a range of uncertainty from 2 to 12 largely depending on the seed dispersal rate assumptions. About a third of the airborne pollen increase is due to on-going seed dispersal, irrespective of climate change. The remaining two-thirds are related to climate and land-use changes that will extend ragweed habitat suitability in northern and eastern Europe and increase pollen production in established ragweed areas owing to increasing CO2. Therefore, climate change and ragweed seed dispersal in current and future suitable areas will increase airborne pollen concentrations, which may consequently heighten the incidence and prevalence of ragweed allergy. Lien pérenne : DOI : 10.1038/nclimate2652 / HAL : hal-01806139
in Nature Climate Change > (2015) . - 3 p.Hamaoui-Laguel, L., Vautard, R., Liu, L., Solmon, F., Viovy, N., Khvorosthyanov, D., Essl, F., Chuine, I., Colette, A., Semenov, MA., Schaffhauser, A., Storkey, J., Thibaudon, M., Epstein, MM. 2015. Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe. Nature Climate Change: 3 p..
A process-based approach to predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of an invasive allergenic plant in Europe / Jonathan Storkey in PloS ONE, 9 (2) (02/2014)
Titre : A process-based approach to predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of an invasive allergenic plant in Europe Type de document : Électronique Auteurs : Jonathan Storkey ; Pierre Stratonovitch ; Daniel S Chapman ; Francesco Vidotto ; Mikhail A. Semenov Année de publication : 2014 Article en page(s) : 1-7 Langues : Anglais (eng) Catégories : [Thématique] Plantes subspontanées, naturalisées, envahissantes Résumé : Ambrosia artemisiifolia is an invasive weed in Europe with highly allergenic pollen. Populations are currently well established and cause significant health problems in the French Rhône valley, Austria, Hungary and Croatia but transient or casual introduced populations are also found in more Northern and Eastern European countries. A process-based model of weed growth, competition and population dynamics was used to predict the future potential for range expansion of A.artemisiifolia under climate change scenarios. The model predicted a northward shift in the available climatic niche for populations to establish and persist, creating a risk of increased health problems in countries including the UK and Denmark. This was accompanied by an increase in relative pollen production at the northern edge of its range. The southern European limit for A.artemisiifolia was not expected to change; populations continued to be limited by drought stress in Spain and Southern Italy. The process-based approach to modelling the impact of climate change on plant populations has the advantage over correlative species distribution models of being able to capture interactions of climate, land use and plant competition at the local scale. However, for this potential to be fully realised, additional empirical data are required on competitive dynamics of A.artemisiifolia in different crops and ruderal plant communities and its capacity to adapt to local conditions. Lien pérenne : DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0088156
in PloS ONE > 9 (2) (02/2014) . - 1-7Storkey, J., Stratonovitch, P., Chapman, D.S., Vidotto, F., Semenov, MA. 2014. A process-based approach to predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of an invasive allergenic plant in Europe. PloS ONE, 9(2): 1-7.